Skip to main content

tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  January 2, 2018 3:30pm-5:00pm EST

3:30 pm
code at the end of last gear, will not seek an eighth term in 2018. he made the official announcement in a video posted on twitter. the time to hang up the gloves is approaching. that is why after much prayer and discussion, i have decided to retire at the end of this term. i look forward to spending more time with my family. decision could open the way to a bid for mitt romney. he thanked hatch for his service. and formally submitted his senate resignation letter to the governor of minnesota -- al fr formally submitted his senate -- alation letteranken
3:31 pm
franken formally submitted his senate resignation letter to the government of minnesota. tina smith will take over. iranians were using instagram to website telegram facilitate protests. the united nations security installed six new members today on the 15 member council. andtries including the u.s. russia and the u.k. are permanent members, whereas others rotate on two-year terms. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:32 pm
julia: live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i am julia chatterley. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. joe: i am joe weisenthal. julia: we are 30 minutes from the close of trading. joe: the question is, what'd you miss? scarlet: senator orrin hatch, the longest serving republican senator in u.s. history to retire at the end of his term. how much will the economy grow now that the tax cut is a done deal? thiel reportedly bitcoin,bank on criminals are loading up on a privacy coin called manero. julia: we are back.
3:33 pm
i am so excited. the republican party is about to light up in utah. sender hatch has held office hase 1976 -- senator hatch held office since 1976 and will not seek reelection. this could open for a move for mitt romney to submit his bed. -- his bid. reactll president trump with having to share washington with his old foe? give us the details on this. we were talking earlier about tensions between mitt romney and the president between the election campaign. would it really be a problem, going forward? mitt romney and president trump have been at loggerheads for several years now.
3:34 pm
republicans were urged to go to great lakes when it looked like it was all but certain to lock the nomination. lengths when it looked like it was all but certain to lock the republican nomination. republicans other to block trump's nomination, then. but then mitt romney changed his tune after president trump was elected. there was that famous photo of trump looking in the camera while mitt romney was at the table. i do think this is going to be an important angle. the president can be impulsive at times. if he feels that way, that romney is coming after him,
3:35 pm
there will be fireworks. said: the president has inney choked like a dog 2012. joe: if mitch wants to see it, will he went -- he win? sahil: he is looking like the frontrunner right now. i am not hearing prominent names, apart from romney. ae last time a democrat won senate race in utah was 1970. it, i am notts sure who can beat him. joe: tell us about this antagonism toward trump. republican senators have been critical of trump. mine,e him to follow others tweet about him -- want
3:36 pm
line, othersn tweet about him. mitt romney be a reliable republican vote on most things? people in what capitol hill are expecting. he may not like president trump's tweaking or temperament temperament, but president trump is doing what fiscal conservatives want an following a pretty standard republican agenda in terms of legislation and nominees. imagine whatlt to hypothetical senator romney would break with president trump on. it will be interesting to watch. presume should we just
3:37 pm
mitt romney would be the candidate here? or could someone steal that from him? what is the likelihood there could be a democratic upset? sahil: the democratic upset in utah, it would be something they haven't seen in generations. up faceans could end planting with an awful candidate like roy moore. maybe democrats could have a chance. would have to face plant pretty spectacularly for democrats to have a shot. there are some significant legacy items in the senate, that will live on far past this time. program wasnsurance authored by senator hatch in 1997. that was just
3:38 pm
passed in -- and signed into law weeks ago, another significant move by senator hatch. the policy about agenda for january and beyond. we have had coverage of immigration, children of undocumented immigrants, never mind the government shutdown. they have a full plate. from they have to: government by january 19. they have to fund the government by january 19, extend the children's health insurance kids, a the daca potential while, other immigration related measures. wall, other immigration related measures. julia: no problem.
3:39 pm
scarlet: thank you. north korea's bold moves to the spotlight at the end of 2017. china high on the list of prospects for this year. all roads point to beijing in this coming year. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet:.
3:40 pm
3:41 pm
what'd you miss? rudd joins bloomberg exclusively to weigh in on tensions between australia and china. kevin: this is one part of a regarding risk
3:42 pm
analysis for 2018. this concerns the response of government to the rise of china in the region. the united states as well will be looking at how china response to the challenge of north korea. on theds go to beijing question of geopolitics in the future of the global economy. where do you see the relationship between australia and china going, and will that hurt trade in australia? kevin: there are political tensions between the two governments at present. chinese activities in australia have caused a reaction from
3:43 pm
beijing. we will see whether this comes to a had and whether economic consequences flow from the current political instability of asian relationships. the relationship between china and australia is one element of a much broader equation. the rise of china is a powerful phenomenon. do you see president trump and his ministration being more engaged in asia in 2018, or pushing back china a little? kevin: the president visited the region in the latter part of 2017. this was judged as successful on many fronts. we have an unresolved security and strategic dynamic, the north korean missile program.
3:44 pm
will dominate the conversation in most of 2018. i think the handling of that crisis should have calculated political risks in the upcoming year. what projection for america does australia need? kevin:. -- predictability. the china relationship is fundamental. also regarding the relationship with north korea. we cannot to live tweet by tweet and the upcoming year as the stakes are raised ever higher -- in the upcoming year as the stakes are raised ever higher.
3:45 pm
>> will globalization get hurt this year? kevin: it has already been hurt. global financial trade markets have been opening in the last two or three decades. we're seeing something of a sea change in the reverse direction. success witho trade organizations, and america withdraw from the tpp. and we have seen an open question with nafta. whether we points to have reached the high tide in which trade, investment, has led to so much global prosperity in recent decades?
3:46 pm
maybe president trump is signaling the reversal of the trend. former: that was the prime minister of australia speaking on "bloomberg surveillance," earlier. weight watchers is a gaining after gaining a new spokesperson. it was oprah? >> still oprah. dj khaled much not mean that much to any of>> us, but for a certain millennial or younger, it means more. joe: he is big on snapchat. julia: twitter. >> 8.9 million instagram followers. >> he is known as a powerhouse on social media. he is going to do weight watchers and document everything. stock was getting a boost today, because there is this perception
3:47 pm
that weight watchers benefits from having celebrity spokespeople. tweeting, down 20 pounds and ready for more. joe: weight watchers has done phenomenal. scarlet: look at the three-year chart. bought a 10% stake for around $43 million. we have a look at the top stakeholders on bloomberg. she is the third-largest shareholder. luxembourg-based is the largest shareholder. keeblerhe company from a long time ago - bought the company from keebler a long time ago but has been reducing its stake over time. julia: astronomical. 287%.
3:48 pm
the percentage of flows that sold short 26.5%, you have high short interest. -- gainss like this, like this, it is based on a bit of a short squeeze. been growingas not profits in the past years. revenue had fallen for three straight years. the last quarterly report came in ahead of estimates. company was at hsn. she has talked up the celebrity endorsers, but the back end,
3:49 pm
what the company has made on the technology and operations fronts. they have been adding members, which has been helping. give -- very timely, given that it is new year's. julia: exactly. thank you. european finance has been a buzz abuzz about the change from changes will happen when assets are traded from stocks to commodities. this is a european union's second big push act regulating said to rewrite how information is shared, and how prices are set. it starts soon. this harmonized rules for stock trading. the financial crisis hit in 2008
3:50 pm
and regulators decided that more was needed. to commodities, bonds, derivatives, and beyond. broker to broker deals will be forced to open and regulated platforms. algorithms must be registered with regulators. it isill be tested and not just the machines under scrutiny. research provided by banks and paid for by trading commissions will now have to be paid for separately. regulators will extend to any institution trading european securities, no matter where they are. this will cost financial firms over $800 million to be compliant.
3:51 pm
the clock is ticking toward the january 3 deadline. baby, it is cold outside. how will the arctic blast impact yield? we have the charts you can't miss. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
3:52 pm
3:53 pm
scarlet: what'd you miss? chinese leaders warning their economy faces challenges in the coming years, whether it is pollution or the rise of domestic debt. but the china economy is holding up relatively well. the white line is the official bmi, at 51.6. manufacturingis bmi, which it shows strong momentum.
3:54 pm
up 51.5 in december, beating economist estimates. these numbers are not as positive as they seem. macroeconomics say these figures are probably overstating momentum. they also see the profits in ,hina appear to be worsening because prices are continuing to slow down. julia: you always want to watch for china. the weather, a favorite pastime. i have a chart to show you what is going on amid record low temperatures in the united states. -10 in degrees fahrenheit, right up to the 70's as you can see down there in florida. joe, talk about this.
3:55 pm
joe: extremely cold. another expert in whether -- in weather. what this is doing is driving natural gas prices higher. of -- up 4.9%d amid warnings that the u.s. is burning most -- the most natural ever, breaking records that occur during the polar vortex of 2014. 143icans are consuming rights cubic feet of gas now. scarlet: we can just be satisfied with saying, it is cold. linefrom europe, the white
3:56 pm
is the number of factories that have the backlog. factories cannot keep up with demand. factories are being run at full capacity and still falling behind orders they have coming in. blue line is eurozone cpi. be think there will connection between manufacturing and capacity constraints. you think there will be price increases. but the connection has been muted. one of the questions for 2018 is whether cpi and inflation will catch up to indicators. see some are trying to of these unemployment numbers improving across europe. scarlet: the market closes next.
3:57 pm
take a look at the major indexes on this trading day of 2018. the dow is up. the s&p 500 gaining 8/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ is this a phone?
3:58 pm
3:59 pm
or a little internet machine? it makes you wonder: shouldn't we get our phones and internet from the same company? that's why xfinity mobile comes with your internet. you get up to 5 lines of talk and text at no extra cost. so all you pay for is data. see how much you can save. choose by the gig or unlimited. xfinity mobile. a new kind of network designed to save you money. call, visit, or go to xfinitymobile.com.
4:00 pm
[applause] julia: what'd you miss? stocks in the green for the first start of the new year, with text leading the gains -- techs leading the gains. joe: we want to welcome you to our closing day coverage. markets entered the new year with the same theme when it comes to equities, gains. tech shares leading the way, driving the nasdaq past that percent. joe: 2018 feels familiar. this will be a theme. names --individual target. the venture cofounder, a former tech analyst, writing that amazon is going to be buying
4:01 pm
target, one of his predictions for the tech industry. on the backdrop of amazon making waves five buying whole foods last year. netflix higher, after price upgraded after a broad realignment of views on media. this has to do with ad driven content and a skill distribution -- scale distribution internationally. weatherford down, after its fracking business shut down a year ago. j.c. penny up after gainsw boss sees market after store closures. starting withets
4:02 pm
rates higher across the board. the tenure is up a little bit ten-year ise two -- up a little bit more than the two-year. 1.9.ear, 2.46.r, dollar, it iseuro the strongest rally we have seen in the last two years. ecdid have comments from the b banker member who says the less inflation disappoints this all systems go in europe.
4:03 pm
this coincides with a three-month low in the u.s. dollar. analysts were looking for decent risk-reward. firmse wall street look likewells fargo good risk-reward. argentina, 28 and three quarters, the highest in the world. also, bitcoin, making a judgment call to lump it with currency. founder fund has amassed hundreds of millions of dollars of bitcoin. that's enough for investors to
4:04 pm
take it up just shy of 10%. joe: let's look at commodities. this one is down a little bit. oil is hanging in there above $60 a barrel. a question whether oil can sustain this upgraded level in 2018. gold had a very solid 2017. two metals, platinum and palladium, both had solid years. 18 is getting off to a similar feel as 2017. the winners of last year where the winners -- are the winners of this year. those are today's market minutes. on the firstmore trading day of the year and what is to come in 2018, let's bring in the chairman and chief
4:05 pm
investment officer at cumberland advisors. 2018 with a comment on equity markets. >> bitcoin can be tangible. joe: is that chocolate? >> it is. julia: with the bitcoin logo. with the bitcoin logo. >> you will never see bitcoin more tangible. joe: were going to eat it -- we 're going to eat it. you were optimistic on markets and nearly fully invested. what does that mean? etf strategy in the u.s. stock market, and another one outside it. gas,ust reported natural for good reason. drilling, we like
4:06 pm
that patch. drilling, we like that patch. joe: most people would say they are bullish, but we won't see a repeat of 2017. we can't get another year of mammoth gains. but could we? means could -- that anything. you would need to have a look -- liquer inside that bitcoin to believe you would get a repeat. funds, when people don't have a way to estimate, translate from stagnant holdings of treasury bills sitting in an ,ccount to active deployment
4:07 pm
company moves money from a dollar-held vehicle abroad -- >> more than buying shares and paying out dividends -- >> they transfer that to someone else. it is the transference of stagnant cash to something active that is not priced in markets. we have no way to guess what that will be. measurable in the trillions. it has been sitting. and it has motivation to move. it has all the reasons to stop sitting in a stagnant pool. that is a multiplier. i don't know how to estimated, but it comes on top of lower tax rates. that can make this a very good deal. we have been talking
4:08 pm
about the wealth effect by the amount of money invested is multiplied over and over. people who have invested in bitcoin are feeling pretty wealthy. bitcoin, i collect millennial fantasy investment. call a conversation -- i it millennial fantasy investment. i had a conversation with a politician from the second district in maine. the average household income is 15,000 below in the district of new york, which he told me. bill tolated the tax personal income per household in northern maine. that is a lot of money.
4:09 pm
100% gets spend. it multiplies in the economy. give me another $2200 and i will buy some chocolate. that is another multiplier we have not seen. scarlet: it is going to go back to paying for higher gas prices. short-termhat a juicing of the economy, versus long-term? avid: if you look at the tax that $2200 in that household is a permanent shift year after year. there is another component to it. you have to prepare the tax return to get child credits. orida, we are starting a
4:10 pm
scholarship program to take low income households and teach them how to get tax credits, because of that household gets $2000 -- if that hold -- is that household gets $2000 and i can help others with philanthropy, that is huge. julia: if you chop the tax rates they are paring, it is an instant bang for the buck. to what extent is that gain you were talking about automatic? you are a poor household and not filing a tax return, you don't know you have a couple thousand dollars in credit. you have not received it. if you learn how to do it one time, you do it again the second year and can plan on a permanent
4:11 pm
income shift. we have an economic term for that permanent income. we have the makings of a very powerful forces. powerful forces. julia: we have the first candidate for someone who thinks this could be a long-term impact. thank you so much. up, bill mcbride, he was ahead of the curve when he predicted the economic collapse of 2008. he will share his insights for the year ahead. from the gore, this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i am mark crumpton with
4:12 pm
4:13 pm
4:14 pm
first word news. president trump supports the people of oregon who are protesting a week economy -- iran, for supporting a week economy. protests have been expanding across the country. ranian people are angry at the rising tide of corruption. people are tired of paying the price. we are now seeing an organic, popular uprising, organized by brave citizens on a large scale. iran supreme leader says the country's enemies are to blame for the protest. he accused of meddling in the domestic fares -- affairs of the country. the white house will review what it calls pakistan's level of
4:15 pm
cooperation in fighting terrorism. the president tweeted that the u.s. has given pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid and gotten "lies and deceit," in return. there were protests in pakistan as a result and the pakistan foreign minister said the country would make clear the difference between fact and fiction. efforts are on the way to change the course of america's longest war. top brass in the middle east is pushing for a more aggressive stance in afghanistan. the military is being pushed to increase pressure on the taliban , which has led to a spring of offenses. the u.s. has been at war in afghanistan for more than 16 years. hackers in north korea are hijacking computers to buy cryptocurrency, according to an analyst at the south korean government. regime is widening
4:16 pm
its search for cash because of tougher financial restrictions. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. julia: what'd you miss? it was the first trading day of the new year. we will get a sense of how the u.s. economy will they are in 2018. -- will fare in 2018. we're joined by bill mcbride. year, great to have you. what are your growth expectations for 2018 and how is that going to be derived? bill: 2018 will be a pretty decent year. gdp will come in about the same in 2017, maybe a little better.
4:17 pm
we down to 4.1% unemployment. there's not much further to go. --re are some question marks what will happen with the new tax law and housing, especially with the high income tax states, like california and new york? questions, the huge and it feels like a little bit , is this theecord joe year where we will see a real acceleration in the pace of wage growth? bitee it go up a little every year, but not as much as we think. we'll 2018 be different? will 2018 be different? bill: weight was actually slowed last year. that was one of the surprises.
4:18 pm
-- wait growth actually slowed last year. that was one of the surprises. at some point, people have to pay more to hire employees, and they will have to pay employees more. thinkingwhat is your on the quest -- on the question of the tax cuts that were passed late last year? bill: it would be a boost for inflation. there are still some underlying reasons inflation is low. there are a number of demographics, globalization, online sales have been pushing inflation down. thefederal reserve thinks low inflation in 2017 is transitory. see oil prices we saw oil prices
4:19 pm
staying low, but now it's picked up. inflection -- inflation will hit closer to the fed target this year. talk about the implications of the tax overhaul in terms of the changes, but what is going on in terms of what you expect for the market this year. bill: more of the same. one of the things i have been asking is what happens with the new tax law, and housing. i don't think it has any impact at the low end level. at margin for deduction is 750,000. people are can have a than that -- are going to
4:20 pm
have less than that at the low end. it changes the alternative minimum tax. people who have been well above the mortgage interest deductions for years will be the beneficiaries. in california and new york, the upper midrange to the $1.5 million -- that will be very interesting to see if it slows. scarlet: inventory declined in .0 15 through 2017 joe because of the limitations of the salt deduction, will we see differences when it comes to inventory in place like new york and california versus the rest
4:21 pm
of the nation? bill: that is one of the things i will be looking at carefully. inventory will start to build a little bit. i do think we will see a little more inventory in some of those states. it is very low right now. founder bill mcbride, of e de-risk, joining us from california. thank you. up, what to expect from the consumer alert conference that kicks off in las vegas, with everything you need to know about hardware. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:22 pm
4:23 pm
julia: what'd you miss?
4:24 pm
consumer electronics show kicks off in las vegas next week. virtual reality and artificial intelligence will be dominant. bloomberg technology editor joins us from san francisco for a preview. the concentration and here of this technology is playing out most evidently in this conference this year. alex: the biggest one to talk about is google. they will have a big presence for the first time in many years. oogle used to be purely a software company. they now have a huge consumer hardware business, growing rapidly. they also have that smart
4:25 pm
speaker, part of that. the consumer electronic gadget, hit.cho, has been a it seems like no one cared about gadgets for many years. what is the category that is most exciting in terms of actual consumers? alex: the smart speaker. years, it will probably be augmented reality glasses. struggledality has and not really been accepted as mainstream. the efforts will make that mainstream, which you will see at ces.
4:26 pm
scarlet: we don't see a lot the lower endeven oculus that facebook is planning to release. at amazon be given a boost alexa?iven the alex: not officially, but i have spoken with people familiar with the plans. they will have a presence in the background, which happens when they don't have an official product. the same can be said of facebook. alex, the automakers have been the flag bearers at ces. to what extent will these and artificial intelligence be hot topics?
4:27 pm
alex: a big presence for the automakers. ford is having one of the major conversations. important, a is lot of the new technology that is coming out needs specialized hardware, including self driving , which need powerful chips and hardware to test the surrounding of the cars. scarlet: thank you. is losing itscoin luster with some of its earliest, most avid fans. mainly criminals. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:28 pm
4:29 pm
4:30 pm
>> worst word news. the u.s. ambassador to the united nations, nikki haley, blasted kim jong-un following the north korean leader's declaration that the u.s. is now within range of a nuclear strike. >> the civilized world must remain united and bill which is -- and vigilant. we will never accept a nuclear north korea. mark: when asked about talks be tween pyongyang and south korea they said "north korea can talk
4:31 pm
about anyone they want, but the u.s. will not acknowledge it hatch isy" -- orrin set to retire after four decades in the senate. in a video posted to twitter the longest serving sender said "every good fighter knows when to hang up the gloves," and for me that time is soon approaching. the senateman of finance committee which oversees tax policy. his retirement opens the door for mitt romney to run for his seat. in a facebook post romney thanked hatch for years of service. the search is on for 99 inmates that escaped during a prison riot. nine inmates are dead and 14 injured. one cellblock invaded three other blocks.
4:32 pm
cold is gripping the united states leading to several deaths authorities attribute to exposure. if rose parts of the chicago river and made it tougher people headed back to work for the first time after the holidays. foron has tied the record the longest cold snap ever in the city. temperatures have been below 20 degrees for the past week. the national weather service issued freeze warnings today covering an area from south texas to canada and wanting a through new england. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> let's get a recap of today's market action. record highs for the s&p and for the nasdaq. nasdaq up by 1.5%. a continues.
4:33 pm
as 20ontinues, 2018, same julia: sarah:. -- 2017. new tracking software is monitoring those oozing bitcoin. how is the narrow avoiding detection and explain how it differs from bitcoin. bitcoin is famous for being anonymous, but there is a difference between the anonymous and untraceable. you can trace transactions -- that is the whole idea. you have the blockchain and every transaction there are was from day one on the blockchain. >> transparency. with bitcoinctions
4:34 pm
are between wallet. you see a wallet, you don't have a name associated with it, but there are many places are you do have to give a name say if you bought the bitcoin on a point base exchange -- coin base exchange. there are others out there that use various methods to either encrypt the sender and receiver information, or create a false trail. they create other fake addresses . so, the software that law enforcement and others have used to try to track transactions gets immediately lost. d?lia: shouldn't this be banne like regulators have been behind on this in terms of regulating every aspect, is it something regulators will get more --
4:35 pm
toi guess we should speak the bitcoin regulator, i guess we know who that it is. actually, i have no idea. that is the thing. there is not really a -- it is extremely lightly regulated. this is outside the realm of regulation. where regulation comes in is where you transfer from dollars or euros to bitcoin. that is the exchanges. and many exchanges to have know your customer laws and those kinds of things. the criminal underworld has taken to it, but what are they doing it with it. >> it is very popular for ransom. >> human hacking, like ransomware? >> very common. they will take over a computer system of towns and individuals, businesses, and demand to be paid off in monero.
4:36 pm
the first thing is to go get the monero, and then transfer it. >> tell me about the good reason zhy monero can be used and cash -- zed cash. should this not be banned? purposely being used for no various means, give us a reason why this is being used for positive utility reasons that you wouldn't -- make anonymousto transactions -- if that is a reason to ban currency, we should ban cash. cryptocurrencies are in response to concerns about privacy, things like that. it is true that crime is often involved, but --
4:37 pm
classic criminal -- the other big news today, the report that peter thiel has a big bitcoin stake. 2018 starting with a rally of all the? torrent --d the down the downturn at the end of would be temporary. i guess it is not entirely shocking that peter thiel would be interested in it, but i think the question of what can pop a bitcoin bubble may very well be an ethereum bubble or the cash - - z cash bubble. how are we trying to understand what the transactions
4:38 pm
are going on behind -- andike radar detectors speeding police, it is a battle. it goes back and forth. julia: it reminds me of catch me if you can. >> exactly. what privacy was sort of the reason for this -- one of the main reasons for these two currencies to be created, no -- >> it feels like it coin is so yesterday. >> don't forget ripple. >> what was the other one? >> there are hundreds. cash,re's actually jesus jesus coin. >> thank you so much, robert urban. investors eyes were glued to the tax term of
4:39 pm
this fall, but will there be a tailwind for act of these this year? neil did so will be here to tell us. get involved in the conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:40 pm
4:41 pm
"what'd you miss?," talk of the republican tax overhaul headlines and market watchers all fall. but now the bill is in, we will -- i am all the tax joined by neil dutta, head of
4:42 pm
renaissance macro research, llc. thanks for joining us. as has been one of the most popular questions, the degree to which cash cuts have been driving the -- the degree to which they will affect the comedy -- the economy. is there an amount we can say is attributable to the tax bill? i think there is. one of the ways is looking at the bloomberg market wrap headline. there's a function you can look at what reporters are saying about days events for the equity market. so, we look at it. the primary reason u.s. equities are up is because earnings are what you find also is towards the end of last year, conditions in d.c. became more
4:43 pm
of a tailwind for equities. so, when it looked like legislators are moving closer to getting a tax code done, markets began to rally on that -- when they look further away, markets moved off on that. this is similar analysis to the kind of -- i had of the election when people concluded that equities would selloff if trump or two when you're at it is no guarantee of future performance, i want to make that clear. but i think it is safe to say that the u.s. market used the tax bill in a favorable way. >> the next question is can we -- asfy the way it's used the actual effects trickle through to the economy? neil: i think if you look at the median expectations for this year, it has moved up about 30 basis points for gdp growth.
4:44 pm
up 2.5%, little bit more than consensus. if it comes in stronger than that, you can say i would assume that the markets rallied on that kind of data. to three, ass 2.5 2.5, which is to what people expected, i think you can make an assessment that it's not all priced in. >> a number of people have said that the tax bill is going to blow through the bottom line, we will get that earnings bump, but we will not the real economic ramifications out of it. all the profits will go to buybacks and stuff like that. when you put on your economist had, what is the mechanism this tax bill translates into i higher gdp? neil: think about the mental model that ben bernanke is associating with.
4:45 pm
stock prices go up and that means there is more collateral against which to borrow, better then, companies invest. i think those arguments are under appreciate the way the stock market -- are the driver of market activity. it is possible that the most optimistic views are sort of hated in terms of what the bill is going to do and i think there is a good case to make that ibex will go up, but that is bullish for equities. endgame.timately my i'm not here to elaborate on the social benefits of what is going on. i think stocks are going up and generally speaking this will mean that are momentum -- that are momentum. people will say the stock market is not the economy or
4:46 pm
trump will brag. but you say maybe it's not as different as people think? neil: do equities go up in a crummy economy? not really. that he another line will get paid more when stocks go up, that's also bogus. they can offset some of the hits to the bottom line of what they pay to wages with a stronger topline. >> nice to talk to you. neil dutta, head of renaissance macro research, llc. >> eurasia group says 2018 is right or a big unexpected crisis . the question is, what is it weird coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:47 pm
4:48 pm
4:49 pm
julia: top 10 geopolitical risks today. our correspondent was at the eurasia group and talk about the year ahead. what i see is this enormous ability to bring knowledge together to allow people to share what they know, to work collaboratively. these tools amplify our ability to do that. we are capable of doing things we couldn't do before because we have help. on the other hand, we also create risk as we depend more on these things. there are people who don't mean us well and would like to exploit our dependence on these
4:50 pm
technologies to disrupt things weird the petroleum -- disrupt things. the peculiar situation is china is they invest in technology and risk goes up as well, just like ours has. interesting situation that may become destabilized as a result of people, for example, in russia would like to disrupt everything anyway they can. back to youll get if china wins this race for technology, what does that mean for the rest of the world? the world will watch for china and the u.s. invest heavily in robotics, software, everything else, and it may become more competitive here to the real question is will we make it possible for the rest of the world to take
4:51 pm
advantage of those capabilities as well. and i think the answer is yes. as the tools become more affordable and available, the rest of the world will be able to also take advantage of them and compete. >> ian? he was talking about resilience before as well, and i think this is a critical point. we saw everyone talking about what they did in didn't do in the election. the issue is not how to fight back against the russians, but how do you make it strong enough. if $10 million buying ads on facebook is enough to bring down -- an election, you've got a problem. >> vince, thank you so much. we look forward to speaking to you again in new york and london. we say good morning on london radio as well. this is done barton and ian
4:52 pm
bremmer. here is a top risk. i don't talk about all the accolades and abilities, we live in an anti-science milieu. did wasce cerf legendary before he went to teach at stanford. that couldn't happen today. anti-fans,isk of an anti-technology america, aren't we? >> it is a worry, because on the one hand you are seeing this massive investment in technology, for example, and care,quare -- in health science, but the fact is we could be doing so much more on it. i think we should be celebrating science in a more sick again way than we are. we are benefiting from our and d was done for decades ago by the government and by business. i think that has been dropping.
4:53 pm
i do agree we need to increase it. to thing we need to get back on the resilience piece on cyber, and this is the -- not the ai, but what vince said about what the software. more of us are connected to things that people. were badlyeople affected about individuals having information, what i worry about is the ability now to be able to shut systems down. you think about logistics systems, trade systems, it happens if you can't communicate internally in an organization. somehas happened to places. if you can't communicate anymore -- and that's now what this can do, you have an issue. even at the basic level i think the resilience on cyber has to be a high priority for all of us. >> if you can't manage global
4:54 pm
risk, clearly resilience as a response and that's what you're talking about. relations. u.s.-iran are you expecting unrest to become bigger in iran? >> it is clear that trump once to burnish his ironic -- he's done that much more clearly than president obama has, he has also gone after the iranians and iranian nuclear deal. most recently given the demonstrations in her iran, coming out and saying we oppose the repression, we support what is happening on the round there. i think there is a point flip that if the u.s.-iran deal doesn't make it in 2018 and if that's true you could the iranians going back toward their nuclear plans, but even if not, the relationship is headed
4:55 pm
toward a rock your way. ier way.k >> it is now time for the bloomberg is this last. causing analysts to guess about sales of its model three. others say sales may have risen by a factor of 40. launching a hedge fund with big tother, cohn is taking steps hen is taking steps to limit oversight. mcdonald's is testing out another burger as it begins to move away from frozen meat.
4:56 pm
the arch burger is available in several locations in tulsa, oklahoma. they announce it would come to most restaurants later in 2018. what you need to know for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪
4:57 pm
jonathan: are we seeing signs of complacency in the treasury market?
4:58 pm
>> u.s. stocks close at a record high, but the s&p 500 closed at a record high since 1992. record highs are no big deal now, but first time on the first -- coming up, the fed reports minutes at 2:00 p.m.. to --'t miss this, method to --'t miss this, method mifid 2 in retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store
4:59 pm
near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. you're watching "bloomberg senator orrintah hatch says he will retire after four decades in the senate.
5:00 pm
in a video, on twitter, he said "every good fighter knows when to hang up the gloves and for me that time is approaching." he opens the door for mitt romney to run or his heat. u.s. and that -- ambassador to the united nations announced -- that the new at u.s. is in range of a nuclear strike from his country. must remain .elichick went -- led to went we will >> never accept a nuclear north korea. when asked about possible talks between pyongyang and south korea ahead of winter olympics, she said carlos correa can talk with whoever they want, but the u.s. is not going to acknowledge it unless they agree to ban the nuclear

34 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on